The 2022 Elections are coming and Brazilians willvote for the President, National Congress, state Governors and State Legislative Assemblies. The first round takes place on October 2 and the second, where it’s necessary, October 30. Furthermore, between July 20 and August 5,parties are going to choose their candidates, but the negotiations and launches of pre-candidates already began. Among the candidates’ names already released, the two main ones are: current President Jair Messias Bolsonaro and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
President Bolsonaro is going to run for his re-election by the Liberal Party (PL), a different party which he won the 2018 Presidential Election, Social Liberal Party (PSL). In that year, Bolsonaro was elected casted himself as an “outsider”, promising new politics and the end ofcorruption; he was elected with 55,13%. However, over the years he’s losing his popularity, mainly because of three reasons: 1) Covid-19 pandemic: Bolsonaro called coronavirus a ‘little flu’, said that people who followed isolation guidance were “idiots”, refused to buy doses for the Brazilians when they first became available and didn’t make a good policy to avoid more than 660.000 deaths; 2) Economic crise: the country has a high unemployment rate and inflation; and 3) Corruption cases involving him and his family.
Former President Lula, of Workers Party (PT), who led the country from 2003 to 2010 and left the office with 87% of approval, returns to the race promising to save the nation. In 2018, when Bolsonaro was elected, Lula was banned from running because of Judge Sergio Moro’ sentence in the “Car Wash” case. However, now, with his political rights regained and the decision of the United Nations Human Rights Committee alleging that Moro was partial in the judgment and Lula had his rights violated by barred him from running for office, the former president isback.
During his government, Lula lifted millions out of poverty, transforming the life of many citizens – one of the reasons of his high popularity when left the office. However, after corruptions scandals involving him, the former President Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016) and his party, he faces “antipetismo” in this election, a movement against Workers Party and its members. In 2018, it is worth mentioning, Bolsonaro was elected, against former Education Minister Fernando Haddad (PT), with the help of this wave.
Regarding the 2022 elections, during the “party window”, a period of 30 days in which lawmakers may change affiliation without losing their mandate, there was an important movement for Bolsonaro: the main parties supporting the government, the Liberal Party (PL), the Progressive Party (PP) and the Republicans were the ones that most received deputies and senators, which are great news for Bolsonaro. At Lula’ side, the Sustainability Network party (REDE), the Brazilian Socialist Party(PSB) and the Socialism and Liberty Party (PSOL) gave up of having their own candidates to support him.
However, due to the high rejection that the two candidates face, Bolsonaro with 57% and Lula with 45% (according to a BTG Pactual poll released in the end of April), and the high polarization, the opposition is looking for a “third way” candidate. But the name has not been decided yet – and since the elections are close, thiscandidate may not have time to beat Bolsonaro or Lula, according to experts.
For now, the scenario, according to the latest survey released by Ipespe in the first week of May, is this: former President Lula leads the race with 44% of voting intentions and President Bolsonaro appears in second place, with 31%. In sequence appears the former Minister of Finance and Regional Integration Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party) with 8%, the former São Paulo Governor João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) with 3% and the Federal Deputy André Janones (Avante), 2%. The pre-candidates Luciano Bivar (Brazil Union), Simone Tebet (Brazilian Democratic Movement), who gained notoriety at the Covid-19 Senate inquiry, José Maria Eymael (Christian Democracy Party), Felipe D’Avila (Novo) and Vera Lúcia (United Socialist Workers’Party) did not score.
To sum up, a lot can happen until October 2. These elections, in addition to being super polarized, worry the authorities mainly due to the attacks and fake news led by President Bolsonaro against the electronic voting machines. Therefore, the 2022 elections will bring more effort from the Superior Electoral Court to show the security and transparency of the electronic system, bringing a good environment for the elections.
Pillole di Politica 